Browsing by Author "Sokolova, Natalia"

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    Pre-forecast modeling of airport electricity consumption time series
    (E3S Web of Conferences, 2024) Sokolova, Natalia; Bugayko, Dmytro; Yekimov, Seregey; Lobov, Oleksii; Leshchinsky, Oleg; Соколова, Наталія; Бугайко, Дмитро; Єкимов, Сергій; Лобов, Олексій; Лещинський, Олег
    The article analyzes the relevance of pre-forecast modeling of time series of electricity consumption by airports, systematizes the methods and ways of the specified pre-forecast modeling and considers some problems arising in the process of their use. A separate stage of preforecast modeling of electricity consumption by the airport is proposed, which contributes, on the one hand, to a fairly quick receipt of primary information about the forecasted object, and on the other hand - to a more effective and adequate final forecast. It is proposed to build a series of neural network models at the stage of preliminary forecasting, including convolutional, recurrence. As a model example, a neural network preforecast model of electricity consumption for the Lviv International Airport is built on the basis of statistical data for the period of relatively stable development of the Ukrainian economy. A comparative analysis of the obtained results of the neural network model with the constructed trend-seasonal model using analytical methods was carried out, which gave a positive result. Conclusions are made on the prospects of building preforecast models of time series of electricity consumption by the airport using neural networks.
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    Proactive risk management of Ukrainian aviation transport post-war recovery and sustainable development
    (Viold Limited Liability Company, 2022) Bugayko, Dmytro; Shevchenko, Olga; Perederii, Nadiia; Sokolova, Natalia; Podrieza, Mykhaylo; Bugayko, Danylo; Бугайко, Дмитро Олександрович; Шевченко, Ольга Роальдівна; Передерій, Надія Миколаївна; Соколова, Наталія Петрівна; Подреза, Михайло Сергійович; Бугайко, Данило Дмитрович
    Global air transport is an open system that is influenced by a large number of factors, both related and unrelated. One of its most vulnerable components is the activity of airlines. This is especially felt during the period of hostilities. The Malaysian Airlines Boeing 777 crash as a result of being hit by a Russian missile and the 2014 Boeing 737 crash of Ukraine International Airlines in Iran as a result of being hit by Iranian anti-aircraft missiles in 2020 are examples of the vulnerability of civil aviation in the rapidly changing conditions of military operations and determine the need for anticipatory risk management of airlines. Unfortunately, the full-scale military aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine from the first minute dealt a devastating blow to the activity of air transport in general, and to the activity of Ukrainian airlines, in particular. In order to formulate strategic scenarios for the post-war recovery and sustainable development of air transport of Ukraine, the article proposes to use the Concept of National Integrated Risk Management of Air Transport of Ukraine.